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Aug
13

8.11.13 … Nate Silver: “He boils what he does — also known as sabermetrics — down to “using data and statistics to try and uncover truth.”

Nate Silver,  ESPN Interview, quotes,  sabermetrics, statistics, truth, predictions, Hillary Clinton:

:

Nate Silver, the man who called the ’08 presidential election in 49 out of 50 states, and the ’12 election in all 50 states, is in fact, not psychic. He’s just right more often than everyone else (up until recently, at the New York Times — and now, at ESPN). He chalks it up to the fact that everyone else is far too distracted by the bullshit — and maybe a little arrogant, too. “People are much too sure of themselves. From decisions to go to war in different countries and market failures to catastrophic weather events and earthquakes. People overestimate how sure they are about what’s going to occur and then learn the hard way [that they don’t].”

He boils what he does — also known as sabermetrics — down to “using data and statistics to try and uncover truth.” Sounds simple enough, but like we said, he’s right a lot. “We’re not trying to magically predict things. We’re just trying to say, look there is a lot of data in the world and we need to distill that down to clarify what we know and what we don’t know — how much uncertainty there is around the problem.” He attributes his success to spotting a flaw in the status quo, being unwilling to compromise, being willing to rock the boat, getting a bit lucky, and being forced to be fearless, from an early age.

Hillary 2016

“Look, you’ve never really had a candidate within her party who was that far ahead. She gets like 70 percent of the votes among democrats. It’s really early for a poll, obviously. But, I think people forget that there were two really compelling democratic candidates in 2008, and one of them had to lose. That doesn’t mean they’re a weak candidate at all. Either Obama or Clinton could’ve won the nomination in almost any other year. For that matter, even the pre-scandal John Edwards would’ve been kind of a traditionally strong candidate. With her Secretary of State credential now, and having Obama working presumably for her instead of against her, it will be very hard to see her losing the nomination. The general election race is different obviously, though.”

via Nate Silver ESPN Interview, Quotes, Pictures.


0 Responses to “8.11.13 … Nate Silver: “He boils what he does — also known as sabermetrics — down to “using data and statistics to try and uncover truth.””



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