Posts Tagged ‘Nate Silver

11
Aug
13

8.11.13 … Nate Silver: “He boils what he does — also known as sabermetrics — down to “using data and statistics to try and uncover truth.”

Nate Silver,  ESPN Interview, quotes,  sabermetrics, statistics, truth, predictions, Hillary Clinton:

:

Nate Silver, the man who called the ’08 presidential election in 49 out of 50 states, and the ’12 election in all 50 states, is in fact, not psychic. He’s just right more often than everyone else (up until recently, at the New York Times — and now, at ESPN). He chalks it up to the fact that everyone else is far too distracted by the bullshit — and maybe a little arrogant, too. “People are much too sure of themselves. From decisions to go to war in different countries and market failures to catastrophic weather events and earthquakes. People overestimate how sure they are about what’s going to occur and then learn the hard way [that they don’t].”

He boils what he does — also known as sabermetrics — down to “using data and statistics to try and uncover truth.” Sounds simple enough, but like we said, he’s right a lot. “We’re not trying to magically predict things. We’re just trying to say, look there is a lot of data in the world and we need to distill that down to clarify what we know and what we don’t know — how much uncertainty there is around the problem.” He attributes his success to spotting a flaw in the status quo, being unwilling to compromise, being willing to rock the boat, getting a bit lucky, and being forced to be fearless, from an early age.

Hillary 2016

“Look, you’ve never really had a candidate within her party who was that far ahead. She gets like 70 percent of the votes among democrats. It’s really early for a poll, obviously. But, I think people forget that there were two really compelling democratic candidates in 2008, and one of them had to lose. That doesn’t mean they’re a weak candidate at all. Either Obama or Clinton could’ve won the nomination in almost any other year. For that matter, even the pre-scandal John Edwards would’ve been kind of a traditionally strong candidate. With her Secretary of State credential now, and having Obama working presumably for her instead of against her, it will be very hard to see her losing the nomination. The general election race is different obviously, though.”

via Nate Silver ESPN Interview, Quotes, Pictures.

20
Jul
13

7.20.13 … 44 years ago today Mike, Buzz & Neil took us to the Moon. Eternal thanks … outmaneuvered and outsmarted by an aging, slightly overweight golden named Dumbledore … nate to espn … “We were the first ones to see the mosaic in thousands of years. I won’t ever forget that feeling.” … C. S. Lewis on kindness and regret .. Little Golden Books Exhibition … 100 Ideas That Changed Film… iconic movie And TV posters Wedding Invitations …

Man on the Moon, 1sts, anniversaries:   44 years ago today Mike, Buzz & Neil took us to the Moon. What an inspiration … Eternal thanks.

Atlanta, kith/kin, Mellow Mushroom:  A few notes from my visit “home” … It’s a hard day when you are both outmaneuvered and outsmarted by an aging, slightly overweight golden named Dumbledore … We have mellow mushroom in CLT, but it tastes sooo much better in Atlanta. 🙂

law, professionalism, JK Rowling: Very disappointed in my profession …

Rowling continues: “I had assumed that I could expect total confidentiality from Russells, a reputable professional firm and I feel very angry that my trust turned out to be misplaced.”

via J.K. Rowling Law Firm Revealed Her Secret Identity : People.com.

Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight Blog,  ESPN, NYTimes.com: Interesting …

“Nate Silver, the statistician who attained national fame for his accurate projections about the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, is parting ways with The New York Times and moving his FiveThirtyEight franchise to ESPN, the sports empire controlled by the Walt Disney Company, according to ESPN employees with direct knowledge of his plans.”

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight Blog Is to Join ESPN Staff – NYTimes.com.

 UNC team,  ancient mosaic,  The Daily Tar Heel: “We were the first ones to see the mosaic in thousands of years. I won’t ever forget that feeling.”

contrib_2_jimhaberman

 

Religious studies professor Jodi Magness, who has led the archaeological trip for three years, said though biblical mosaic floors are not uncommon, Samson is a rare motif. Samson is depicted as a giant figure in the mosaic, which relates to later traditions of the hero preserved in Talmudic literature, she said.

Burney said it was exciting to be among the first to rediscover the mosaic after more than two millennia.

“When Dr. Magness realized that we were close to uncovering more mosaics this year, she brought everyone over to that part of the site and let us watch as Orna Cohen, the site conservator, brushed away the last few centimeters of dirt,” Burney said.

“We were the first ones to see the mosaic in thousands of years. I won’t ever forget that feeling.”

via The Daily Tar Heel :: UNC team unearths ancient mosaic.

 

C. S. Lewis, quotes, BrainyQuote:

Has this world been so kind to you that you should leave with regret? There are better things ahead than any we leave behind. – C. S. Lewis

via C. S. Lewis Quotes – BrainyQuote.

children’s books, Childhood, NMAHs Little Golden Books Exhibition, Smithsonian, Smithsonian Magazine:

“Little Golden Books” at the National Museum of American History| | | SHARE ON REDDITREDDIT | SHARE ON DIGGDIGG | SHARE ON STUMBLEUPONSTUMBLE | SHARE ON EMAILEMAIL | MORE SHARING SERVICESMOREIn 1942, when childrens books were a luxury for most American families, Little Golden Books hit the market at the affordable price of 25 cents each. Colorful, sturdy, and designed for beginning readers, the books with the now-iconic shiny foil spine made reading accessible to all children and, according to American History Museum curator Melodie Sweeney, “represented an enormous shift in thinking about how, where, and what children should read.” The museums Little Golden Books exhibition, on view until January 2014, reveals the series role in larger cultural trends and allows visitors to read classics including The Poky Little Puppy and The Saggy Baggy Elephant in a family-friendly “Book Nook.”

via Relive Your Childhood with NMAHs Little Golden Books Exhibition | New at the Smithsonian | Smithsonian Magazine.

100 Ideas That Changed Film, Brain Pickings, lists:

The impact of the House UnAmerican Activities Committee’s investigation into Communism in HOllywood can never fully be assessed: after all, it’s impossible to assess the caliber of scripts never written and performances never given. Nevertheless, the witch hunt that took place between 1947 and 1952 represents the studio system’s darkest hour.

via 100 Ideas That Changed Film | Brain Pickings.

Awesome Wedding Invitations,  iconic movie And TV posters:  creativity at work …

We have a feeling Siskel and Ebert would have given these wedding invitations two thumbs up.

Southern California couple Joshua and Rachel Watson took inspiration from their favorite films and TV shows when they crafted the invitations for their June 1 wedding. With the help of photographer Jordan Nakamura, the Watsons inserted themselves into posters for films such as, “Casablanca,” “Inception” and “Mad Men,” then sent guests a DVD case with one of the posters as the cover and a CD of their favorite music inside.

Joshua, a photographer, told HuffPost Weddings in an email that he and Rachel, who works in film and television, felt “burnt out” with traditional wedding and engagement photography. “[Traditional photography] seems a little ‘cut-and-pasted’ to us,” he said. “We wanted our engagement and wedding to be the first time we actually collaborated and created something together, and decided to produce this.”

via Awesome Wedding Invitations Mimic Iconic Movie And TV Posters (PHOTOS).

26
Jun
13

6.26.13 … “By August, about 600m people worldwide will live in states/countries with gay marriage”

That’s significant progress in one year …

12
Jun
13

6.12.13 … Nate Silver and the NSA Scandal … enough said …

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight 13h

Was agnostic about Snowden but some of the Op-Ed columns attacking him are so terrible I’m now convinced he must have done something right.

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight 16h

I’m reluctant to conclude from polls that a majority backs the NSAs activities. The whole question is what those activities encompass.

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight 11 Jun

Domestic Surveillance Could Create a Divide in the 2016 Primaries http://nyti.ms/18s7d2F

via Nate Silver (fivethirtyeight) on Twitter.

06
May
13

5.6.13 … back at it …

“Solvitur Ambulando” – It is solved by walking,  Sharon Baptist Church – Charlotte NC: I call this my Walmart labyrinth. I call it my Walmart labyrinth because I’m not particularly fond of it, but it is on my route to the super Walmart. So here I am  today enjoying this very odd cool May day, the second such day in a row. And I’ll make an attempt at solving. Blessings.

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Colbert Busch, Mark Sanford,  Nate Silver, SC 1st Congressional District, NYTimes.com:  Really enjoy Nate Silver’s analysis.  So from his analysis, it seems the only reason for a Republican to vote for via Colbert Busch is to punish Sanford.

… even if Ms. Colbert Busch does win on Tuesday, how long might she be able to hold on to such a solidly Republican seat?If recent history is any guide, not that long.Since 1997 which is as far back as records of special elections go on history.house.gov, candidates who won a special election in a district carried by the opposing political party in the preceding presidential election have had fleeting tenures in Congress.There have been 59 special elections since 1997, and just 14 candidates have carried districts that leaned away from their political party a Republican representing a Democratic-leaning seat or vice versa. Of those 14, 13 no longer hold those seats.1 The lone exception is Representative Ron Barber, who won a full term in Arizona’s Eighth Congressional District in 2012 after winning a special election to replace former Representative Gabrielle Giffords.Most of those 14 special election upsets occurred in districts that are less partisan than South Carolina’s first district.

via Colbert Busch Might Win, but Could She Last? – NYTimes.com.

Niall Ferguson, John Maynard Keynes:  Rewriting history, giant leaps …

Harvard historian Niall Ferguson has apologized after suggesting that John Maynard Keynes’ economic theories were influenced by the fact that he was gay and childless, and therefore was unconcerned with the welfare of future generations. He wrote, “First, it is obvious that people who do not have children also care about future generations. Second, I had forgotten that Keynes’s wife Lydia miscarried.” Ferguson tends to court controversy — his 2012 book Civilization:The West and the Rest was widely seen as an apology for Western colonialism.

via Book News: Harper Lee Says Literary Agent Exploited Her Health : The Two-Way : NPR.

Thin Places,  TMBS, FPC-Charlotte, NYTimes.com:  A friend shared this on FB and I thought it worth mentioning again.

 So what exactly makes a place thin? It’s easier to say what a thin place is not. A thin place is not necessarily a tranquil place, or a fun one, or even a beautiful one, though it may be all of those things too. Disney World is not a thin place. Nor is Cancún. Thin places relax us, yes, but they also transform us — or, more accurately, unmask us. In thin places, we become our more essential selves.

via Thin Places, Where We Are Jolted Out of Old Ways of Seeing the World – NYTimes.com.

We used the concept of “thin places” to anchor a week of a FPC bible study I attend and included this article.  Here is the outline of our discussion:

“Thin Places” Feb. 5: This Tuesday we will wrap up our Epiphany study with a look at the Transfiguration (Luke 9:28-36). In Barbara Brown Taylor’s sermon about the Transfiguration, she refers “thin places”.

This term, originating in Celtic spirituality, refers to a place in which the boundary between the holy and the ordinary becomes very thin. It has come to describe both sacred and secular spaces as shown in the following two articles.

Thin Places of Faith Dr. Karyn L.Wiseman – Huffington Post Where Heaven and Earth Come Closer Eric Weiner – NYT

Think about when and where those places have occurred in your life and how you might re-create these spaces day to day. Moving from Discovering Christ to Practicing the Discipleship of Christ, these encounters with the holy can help deepen our Lenten experiences. As noted in a sermon by Rev. Nicholas Lang, “Christian practices—what we do here in this sacred space—have as their central purpose to provide the possibility for us to encounter a thin place where our hearts are opened.” We’ll spend some time on Tuesday discussing these glimpses through the “cracked doors… where God is a palpable presence” (Taylor p. 58).

The Rustbelt Almanac, Louisville:  I am very interested in the Rust Belt and its people, so I will take a look at The Rustbelt Almanac—A New Quarterly About Industrious People,  Louisville is this odd, but charming, mixture of The South and the Rust Belt.

WHY THE RUST BELT?

America’s Rust Belt is the sprawling region stretching from the Northeast across the Midwest, and into parts of the Upper South – most notably characterized by a vast void left by manufacturing industries that once dominated the economic landscape, but have long since gone by the wayside. While industry may have moved elsewhere, the work-ethic has not. The region is home to countless industrious people; artists, craftsman, laborers, entrepreneurs – Makers. That same void left by industry is the reason the region has such unimaginable potential for growth: there is room for the folks who want to take risks and start something new.

via About — Rustbelt Almanac.

19
Mar
13

3.19.13 (updated 3.20.13) … Thanks, Nate, you make me smile … It’s a great day to be a wildcat!

Nate Silver, Davidson Basketball,  Marquette, Indiana, 2013  NCAA Tournament, Business Insider: 🙂

The New York Times’s brilliant, clairvoyant, very handsome stats guy, Nate Silver, says that the most likely-to-occur upset of a number three seed in this year’s NCAA men’s basketball tournament would be Davidson beating Marquette.

He gives Davidson a 35% chance of winning.

via NATE SILVER: Davidson Has A Great Chance For A Big Upset In The NCAA Tournament – Business Insider.

A little more detail about the East bracket …

Marquette is almost certainly the weakest No. 3 seed, and has about a 35 percent chance of being upset by No. 14 Davidson in its opening game. A potential Round of 16 game against No. 4 Syracuse in Washington could be Indiana’s toughest test.

With that said, there is no real reason to go searching for a fashionable upset pick, like No. 6 seed Butler, to emerge from the East. Indiana began the season ranked No. 1, has far and away the best offense in the country, and won the regular season title in the best conference.

via Parity in N.C.A.A. Means No Commanding Favorite – NYTimes.com.

23
Feb
13

2.23.13 … If we wanted applause, we would have joined the circus …

Lent, kith/kin, Cat – kitchen kitsch,
Rev. Pen Peery, First Presbyterian-Charlotte,  liturgical
stoles, 2013 Lenten labyrinth walks
:

photo

When my in-laws sold their beach home
a few years back, one of the “things” I wanted was this silly
statue which was on the entrance hall table next to the guest book.
 It served as a great place to park keys … for a week … A
few years ago, I moved him from my entrance hall table to the
kitchen island and started seasonally decorating him.  Since I
am learning about celebrating  Lent, I took a stab at him for
Lent.  Pen Peery wrote an article in my church’s newsletter
about the meaning of the stoles worn by the ministers … et voila!
 And yes he is holding a finger labyrinth … Cat supports my
Lenten “practice.” I hope no one takes offense …

    Argo (2012),
quotes
:  The Oscars are this weekend and I have
now seen two nominated films: Argo and Beasts of the Southern Wild.
 I liked both.  But my guess is that Argo will win …
universal appeal.

 O’Donnell: If we wanted
applause, we would have joined the circus. via Argo (2012) –
Memorable quotes
.

Argo,
Oscar predictions, Nate Silver, Five Thirty Eight,
NYTimes.com
:  And Nate Silver agrees …

“Argo” has won the top awards given out by
Hollywood directors, producers, actors, writers and editors, all of
whom will also vote for the Oscars. It also won the Bafta (British
Academy of Film and Television Arts) award for Best Picture, whose
membership has significant overlap with the Academy. “Zero Dark
Thirty” may have won slightly more critical acclaim, but the
critics do not vote for the Oscars; the insiders do. And there has
been absolute consensus for “Argo” among the insiders. It would be
an enormous upset if it were to lose. (“Lincoln,” once considered
the front-runner, has been nominated for almost every best picture
award but won none of them. Counting on a comeback would be a bit
like expecting Rudolph W. Giuliani to have resurrected his campaign
in Florida in 2008 after finishing in sixth place everywhere else.)
via Oscar
Predictions, Election-Style –
NYTimes.com
.

Oscars,
MarketWatch
:  Interesting …

A Best Picture win at the Academy Awards is
practically the best advertising a movie can get, experts say,
especially if the studio’s pre-ceremony marketing push is taken
into account. In fact, even a nomination can be worth its weight in
gold. The average winning movie was made on a $17 million budget
and earned $82.5 million at the box office, according to market
research company IBISWorld, and more than half of the winners’ box
office sales occurred after the Best Picture nomination. (The Oscar
statuette itself is gold-plated and worth about $500, according to
Go Banking Rates, a financial services website.) via 10
things the Oscars won’t say –
MarketWatch
.

Becoming
Odyssa, Jennifer Pharr Davis,  the Appalachian
Trail:
 What a treat … could I have done this
at 21 … could i do it now?

With every step she takes, Jennifer
transitions from an over-confident college graduate to a student of
the trail, braving situations she never imagined before her
thru-hike. The trail is full of unexpected kindness, generosity,
and humor. And when tragedy strikes, she learns that she can depend
on other people to help her in times of need.

via Becoming
Odyssa: Epic Adventures on the Appalachian Trail: Jennifer Pharr
Davis: Amazon.com: Kindle Store
.

 
  shrimp and Grits, bacon,  Garden
and Gun,  The Lee Bros. Charleston Kitchen
:
Shrimp and grits + bacon … a marriage made in heaven.

4 oz. slab bacon, cut into large dice
via Shrimp
and Grits Recipe | Garden and Gun
.

Between
digressions on such subjects as the shrimping industry, the 1950
cookbook Charleston Receipts, and even foraging on the streets of
downtown Charleston, the brothers present recipes inspired by Holy
City culinarians past and present. Dishes range from clever
inventions (Frogmore Soup, a chowdery take on the iconic
seafood-and-vegetable boil) to venerable standbys (Hoppin’ John).
And they tackle shrimp and grits with tomato-and-bacon gusto. Their
version of the Lowcountry breakfast staple blends the fortified old
with the best of the streamlined new for a rich stew of ingredients
that still showcases the delicate flavor of fresh shrimp.
via email :
Webview : A Fresh Take on Shrimp and
Grits
.

Chicago,
southern, Garden and Gun
: when  moved to
Chicago in 1999, I was overwhelmed by the hospitality of my
neighbors in Wilmette.  I said numerous times that Southerners
needed to take lessons on “southern hospitality” from Chicagoans.

“You can adopt the city and it doesn’t mind,”
says my friend Jack Davis, a part-time resident who was once the
metropolitan editor of the Chicago Tribune. I know what he
means—for all the tony clubs and the highfalutin landmarks (the Art
Institute, the University of Chicago, the tallest building in the
Western world), there’s an openness and accessibility about the
place that mirrors the plan laid out by Daniel Burnham in 1909.
Burnham gave the city glorious parks and wide boulevards; he
imagined Michigan Avenue as the Champs-Elysées of the Midwest and
he succeeded. He also made it possible to see everything without
craning upward. The skyscraper was invented in Chicago, but it’s
not a remotely vertical place. Not only is Chicago arguably the
most architecturally significant city in America, it’s also the
most architecturally literate. The average citizen knows who Frank
Lloyd Wright and Louis Kahn and Ludwig Mies Van der Rohe were; he
or she might run into Helmut Jahn at Blackbird. Two of the most
important architectural prizes in the world originate in Chicago,
the Pritzker prize (for modernism) and the Richard H. Driehaus
Prize (for classicism). The citizens are proud of their buildings,
they love their theater troupes and companies (Second City,
Steppenwolf, Lookingglass), they hang out at Millennium Park and
the twenty-four public beaches along the shores of Lake Michigan.
They dine in some of the finest restaurants in the world (including
nineteen with Michelin stars), but they’ve also canonized the
Chicago Dog with its sui generis (and seriously delicious) toppings
including sport peppers and an electric-green relish. … If Nora
introduced me to Chicago, I got to know it with Frances. She took
me to lunch at the Women’s Athletic Club, a Beaux Arts landmark
that’s the oldest club of its kind in the country, and arranged a
book signing at another of her clubs, the Casino, housed in a
one-story art-deco building just behind the John Hancock building,
the air rights to which must be worth a fortune. We ate at her
neighborhood Gibsons steakhouse, went to Gene & Georgetti’s
on festive occasions, and lunched—a lot—at her favorite, RL. Over
the years, I grew to love the city’s overlapping neighborhoods and
its uniquely American glamour (one of the sexiest nights of my life
involved not much more than speeding down Lake Shore Drive in a
fast car) almost as much as she did. There is a hole now in the
landscape where Frances used to be, but Chicago will forever remain
my kind of town. via Chicago’s
Southern Soul | Garden and Gun
.

college, Harvard, nap rooms, CU,  Siesta, power
naps, psychiatry, problem-solving skills
:

Harvard’s own research shows the benefits of
power naps. Robert Stickgold, associate professor of psychiatry,
said in the Harvard Health Letter that napping can improve people’s
problem-solving skills. A November 2009 issue of the Harvard Health
Letter recommended 20- to 30-minute naps and endorsed the idea of
having an ideal spot to rest: “You don’t want to waste a lot of
time getting to sleep. Reducing light and noise helps most people
nod off faster. Cool temperatures are helpful, too.” The University
of Colorado-Boulder started its own nap center in 2009 called
“Siesta,” the Daily Camera reported. Some students say they notice
that libraries are doubling as mega nap rooms. “I see, every so
often, people fall asleep in the library, and it’s sort of
inconvenient,” Harvard senior Sam Singer told NBC Boston affiliate
WHDH on Thursday. “And if you live far away from the yard you live
far away from places where your classes might be to go back in the
middle of the day. I know people often talk about taking a nap.”
The University of Texas and the University of California-Davis both
created their own nap maps to plot the best spots to snooze on
campus. Hou told the Globe she plans to create her own nap map
until a siesta center is set up on campus. We can’t say we disagree
with Hou’s idea. We have nap rooms here at The Huffington Post, and
they’re often overbooked. via Harvard
Nap Room Under Consideration After Student’s Petition Finds
Support
.

grilled-cheese
cheesewich, BA Daily, bonappetit.com
: all cheese …

all-grilled-cheese-body2.jpgKOOKERY

Cheese Cheese Cheese Cheese
Cheese Cheese via A
Grilled-Cheese Cheesewich, But With Cheese Instead of Bread: BA
Daily: bonappetit.com
.




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